How did Rodtang’s Weight Miss Affect the Odds against Jacob Smith?
‘The Iron Man’ Rodtang Jitmuangnon was set to defend his Muay Thai championship against the UK’s Jacob Smith at ONE 169 on November 9 hosted in Bangkok, Thailand. Muay Thai icon Rodtang missed weight and was stripped of his title. How did this change the betting lines coming into this matchup?
Rodtang’s Weight Miss on the Odds
‘The Iron Man’ ran into some serious trouble at the weigh-ins for his fight against the UK-born Jacob Smith. He failed to make weight, coming in at 135.5 pounds, which is over the flyweight limit. Rodtang lost his championship title right there on the scale, before even stepping into the ring. This isn’t the first time he’s had weight issues, as he’s missed weight several times in his ONE Championship career. It caused a massive change with online sports betting but not in a typical manner.
Despite this setback, the fight is still going to happen. It’s now set as a catchweight bout at 135.5 pounds. Only Jacob Smith can win the now-vacant title. If Rodtang wins, the championship will remain vacant. As a penalty for missing weight, Rodtang also has to give up 20% of his fight purse to Smith, win or lose.
When he missed weight the odds had a dramatic shift but hugely in the direction of the Thai-born champion. Before Rodtang missed weight, the odds were relatively close. Rodtang was the favorite at -200, which means you’d need to bet $200 to win $100 if he won. Jacob Smith was the underdog at +180, meaning a $100 bet on him would win you $180 if he won.
These odds suggested a competitive fight, with Rodtang having an edge. However, after the Thai-born champion missed weight, the odds changed dramatically. Rodtang’s odds moved to -2000, which is a massive shift. This means you’d now have to bet $2000 to win $100 if Rodtang wins. This indicates that despite missing weight, bookmakers now see Rodtang as an overwhelming favorite.
On the other hand, Jacob Smith’s odds lengthened to +1000. This means a $100 bet on Smith would now win you $1000 if he wins. This change indicates that bookmakers now see Smith as a much bigger underdog than before.
These shifts are quite surprising and go against what you might typically expect after a fighter misses weight.
Rodtang and Smith first fought back in May 2022, where Rodtang won by unanimous decision. Rodtang is known as “The Iron Man” and has a reputation for being incredibly tough and aggressive in the ring. He’s a huge star in Muay Thai and was on a streak of successful title defenses before this weight miss.
Smith showed he could hang with Rodtang, even though he lost. Smith is known for his power and aggressive style, which makes for an exciting matchup against Rodtang’s relentless pressure. Rodtang is particularly known for his crushing body shots and iron chin, while Smith will be looking to use his power to cause an upset. Despite Rodtang’s weight miss, he’s still considered the favorite due to his skill and experience.
